tail probability
[/teɪl ˌprɑːbəˈbɪləti/]
nounpl: tail probabilities
probabilidade da cauda
1. The probability that a random variable takes a value in the extreme region of its distribution, typically in one or both tails beyond a certain threshold
The tail probability of a standard normal distribution beyond three standard deviations is approximately 0.27%.
A probabilidade da cauda de uma distribuição normal padrão além de três desvios-padrão é aproximadamente 0,27%.
2. In risk management and statistics, the probability of extreme or rare events occurring
Understanding tail probability is crucial for assessing financial risk in portfolio management.
Compreender a probabilidade da cauda é crucial para avaliar o risco financeiro na gestão de portfólio.
3. The area under a probability distribution curve in the extreme regions (left tail, right tail, or both)
We calculated the tail probability to estimate the likelihood of market crash scenarios.
Calculamos a probabilidade da cauda para estimar a probabilidade de cenários de queda do mercado.
This is a technical term predominantly used in academic statistics, quantitative finance, risk management, and actuarial science in both Brazil and the United States. It became increasingly important in financial discourse following major market downturns like the 2008 financial crisis, where tail probability analysis helped explain rare but catastrophic events. The term is universally understood among professionals in these fields across both countries.
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