expected goal
[ɪkˈspɛktəd ɡoʊl]
nounpl: expected goals
gol esperado
1. A statistical metric in football/soccer that measures the quality and probability of a scoring opportunity, calculated based on historical data of similar shots
The striker's shot had an expected goal value of 0.75, indicating a high-quality chance.
O chute do atacante tinha um valor de gol esperado de 0,75, indicando uma chance de alta qualidade.
2. The cumulative xG value assigned to all shots taken by a team or player during a match or season
Manchester City accumulated 2.3 expected goals despite scoring only once.
O Manchester City acumulou 2,3 gols esperados apesar de marcar apenas uma vez.
Expected goals (xG) has become increasingly important in modern football analytics, particularly in Brazil and Portugal where statistical analysis of the game is growing. The metric originated in advanced sports analytics in the USA and has been adopted globally by clubs, commentators, and fans to assess team and player performance beyond traditional goal-scoring statistics. It's especially prevalent in discussions of Série A, Premier League, and Liga Portugal.
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